"The parallel to Ukraine leaving would be California seceding, but can you see that happening?"

There is no comparison between California- the fifth largest economy in the world- and Ukraine.

Otherwise, good observations. Some forward thinking analysts in the 1960s pointed out that some USSR claims of doing well for its people just weren't backed up by satellite images of train movements, port tonnage, etc. and that it would collapse on its own within a few decades.

And it did. And Reagan was given/claimed credit for it when he said "tear down the wall".

He was pretty slick at claiming and getting credit for things he had little to nothing to do with; it's the Republican way, after all.